The International Energy Forum (IEF) has just released a report written jointly with Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a researcher at the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs. The study indicates that the hydrogen market is expected to develop in several phases over the next few decades, revolving around (1) local point-to-point transactions; (2) isolated bilateral negotiations; (3) large-scale contracts for international deliveries and (4) potential for global commoditization.
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The European Union has quadrupled its low carbon hydrogen supply target for 2030 from 5.6 Mtpa (millions of tonnes per year) to 20.6 Mtpa, as part of the REPoweEU strategy to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas. More than 500 large-scale projects have been announced in the last two years, with more than 50% in the last twelve months.
However, despite playing a relevant role, hydrogen is not the “silver bullet” in the goals of decarbonization and energy security. Direct electrification is more efficient in many applications. Public policies and business models should aim to develop the business chains that make the most sense from a technical and economic point of view.
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