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Among others, they estimate a substantial drop in the cost of electrolyzers by 2030, which will bring the flattened cost of producing green hydrogen to comparatively lower levels than blue hydrogen obtained from steam reforming natural gas with carbon capture.
In the case of Brazil, our view is consistent with estimates by EPE, FIEC and McKinsey that in addition to the drop in the cost of electrolyzers, the reduction in renewable electricity costs (see the announcements of investments in solar and wind both onshore and offshore to years) will provide a relevant contribution to the drop in the cost of H2V. However, it is worth mentioning that pre-salt hydrocarbons have the lowest carbon content in the global O&G industry, so that our country cannot afford to stop monetizing these assets to the extent of market needs.
So, we will see a lot of blue hydrogen around here, in the context of the Brazilian rainbow hydrogen strategy, which includes, among others, ethanol, biomass, nuclear, etc.
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